Buy AUD/NZD on ligher positioning, hawkish RBA - BoA

At 07:45 ET (11:45 GMT), AUD/NZD traded 0.1% to 1.0869, having fallen just under 1% in the last week, and nearly 2.5% over the last month.

“We recommend buying AUD/NZD at 1.0877, targeting our year-end forecast of 1.13 with a stop-loss at 1.07, just below the June lows,” analysts at BoA Securities said, in a note dated Aug. 28.

The relative monetary policy outlook remains unchanged – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to deliver two further rate cuts this year, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to cut until 2025, the bank said. 

Australia’s July CPI inflation was above consensus, BoA added, and strengthens its conviction that the RBA will maintain its recent hawkish rhetoric at a time when the market is still pricing in a cut by year-end.

The fall in AUD/NZD over the past month has been driven primarily by positioning, the analysts added, as the volatility shock in early August led to a broad unwind of crowded trades, but AUD/NZD continued to screen as long even after this episode, and positions were likely extended after the dovish RBNZ on Aug. 14.

“Positioning is a risk to this trade but has likely lightened up and we have stronger conviction that the uptrend channel support of 1.0850 will hold,” BoA said.

Another risk is if the USD sell-off continues, as NZD/USD has tended to be better bid when USD weakens due to poorer liquidity, which ultimately weighs on AUD/NZD.

Weak China commodity demand is a risk too, although AUD/NZD tends to be less sensitive to China sentiment than AUD/USD.