Most investors expect soft landing, Citi says

In their Global Markets Strategy weekly note, Citi analysts revealed that over two-thirds of their clients are in the "soft landing camp," with only about 21% expecting a more severe hard landing.

The remaining 11% are predicting a scenario where there is "no landing" at all.

Citi's survey also highlighted investor expectations for the Federal Reserve's terminal rate. A significant 68% of respondents believe that the Fed Funds rate will settle between 3% and 3.75%, with around 17% forecasting it will fall below 3%.

Meanwhile, Citi says that approximately 14% expect the terminal rate to reach or exceed 4%.

The note points out that several key economic indicators, such as core CPI, manufacturing ISM, and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), are currently at levels that would typically prompt the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates.

This suggests that if the economy does indeed achieve a soft landing, there could be deeper rate cuts in this cycle compared to previous periods of economic softening.

Citi analysts said that "should a soft landing be achieved, it would not be surprising to see deeper cuts this cycle compared to previous easing cycles that coincided with soft landings."

Citi's findings indicate that the prevailing sentiment among investors is one of cautious optimism, with a majority expecting the economy to avoid a severe downturn and the Federal Reserve to implement moderate rate cuts as a result.

This aligns with the broader market narrative that has been gaining traction in recent months.